Pritam Deuskar on Global Markets & India Investment Outlook 2026

WEALTHYVIA VENTURES LLP

CIO Desk · Pritam Deuskar · Global Investment Intelligence

Iran Conflict · US Bond Crisis · Japan’s Yield Trap · India’s Structural Ascendancy · War-Proof Capital

The mere whisper of de-escalation — the faintest suggestion that the theatre of war may be drawing its curtain — and we witnessed something rather instructive: a market that exhaled.

As per Mr. Pritam Deuskar, CIO, Wealthyvia Ventures LLP, after every brutal correction, structurally-sound sectors lead the recovery — invariably the first to reclaim all-time highs. The stocks that fell least during the pain almost always rise the most, most durably, during the reversal. India is at an extraordinary juncture. The sectors being born in this decade — energy, power electronics, defence and spacetech, capital markets architecture, advanced manufacturing — are not cyclical trades. They are generational allocations. The traditional investor mentality anchored in legacy IT, old-economy banks, and commoditised index heavyweights will increasingly find itself on the wrong side of a very decisive structural shift.

Our positioning was not accidental. While the consensus catastrophised, our holdings held their ground with a composure that only genuine business quality produces. Pure-play Power Equipment +30% YTD. Energy Electronics & Automation +22% YTD. Grid Transmission & Distribution Infrastructure +25% YTD. Exchange & Capital Markets Infrastructure — stable, composed. These were not lucky picks. Businesses anchored in the irreversible: India’s energy transition, grid modernisation, and the institutionalisation of its capital markets.

The moment the fog lifts, audit your portfolio with ruthless honesty. Are you holding ducks disguised as eagles? Will you keep sitting on the tortoise — or ride the strong horses showing stamina, speed and endurance — the very business characteristics for long-term, large growth and sustenance?

So here is the singular question every thoughtful investor must now sit with — not with urgency, but with the deliberate calm of someone who has seen many cycles: what does the next 18 months of earnings look like for each business, independent of the geopolitical weather?

Stay Invested. Stay Rational. But Stay Exceptional.

— Pritam Deuskar, CIO · Wealthyvia Ventures LLP · April 2026

Iran, Operation Epic Fury & India’s Strategic Resilience

The Strait of Hormuz impairment of February 28, 2026 — Operation Epic Fury — was the largest energy supply shock since 1973. Peak disruption ~10 mb/d. Brent spiked to $116/bbl. TTF gas +80%. The consensus panicked. The informed investor recognised a different pattern entirely.

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India’s response was engineering, not panic. Rapid crude diversification to Russian/US grades (~35% of imports), complex refinery arbitrage converting discounted sanctioned crude into premium exports, and Samarthya ’26 defence surge (+15% budget, ₹7.85L crore) have transformed a supply shock into a strategic dividend. According to Mr. Pritam Deuskar, the market’s initial focus was on the geopolitical disruption, while investors underestimated India’s structural strengths — its energy diversification, manufacturing ecosystem, and policy agility — which could ultimately convert the crisis into a long-term competitive advantage.

History is unambiguous. Across every major geopolitical and financial shock since 1990, India’s equity market has not merely survived — it has systematically outperformed global peers in the 12–24 months that follow. The table below is not coincidence; it is the repeating signature of structural domestic demand, policy agility, and deepening local savings:

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History tells us that after each geopolitical issue , crude oil went up with correction in markets but during the recovery phase Indian indices have outgrown MSCI EM markets by wide margin. Today we seat at cusp of recovery and history is about to rhyme!

“The Hormuz shock shifts India from price-taker to balancing node — monetising crude differentials, product spreads, and logistics arbitrage via complex refining. A resilience advantage, even as near-term inflation and CAD pressures rise.”

— Pritam Deuskar, March 2026

When Debt Service Becomes the True Cost of War

There is an iron law of sovereign finance: a government cannot simultaneously fight wars abroad and sustain ballooning debt costs at home. The United States confronts this law with terrifying directness.

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When interest costs consume 23.5% of total tax revenue — pointing toward 30%+ within 18 months — sovereign fiscal space collapses. The IMF classifies fiscal stress at 15%; the US crossed that threshold long ago. Every month of sustained conflict adds $80–120B in financing at 4.65%. History is unambiguous: bond markets end wars before armies do — Vietnam broke Bretton Woods, the Soviet Union collapsed under military fiscal overreach. According to Mr. Pritam Deuskar, rising US bond yields strengthen India’s appeal as a structurally resilient investment destination.

India’s insulation is structural: 81% public debt in domestic currency, RBI already easing (repo 5.25%), CPI at a historic 1.7% low — a policy divergence that compresses US equity multiples while enhancing India’s risk-adjusted attractiveness.

“The bond market is the most powerful force on earth. I don’t care about armies. If the bond market turns on you, your government cannot function.”

— James Carville — a lesson every war cabinet must now relearn

The ¥5,900 Trillion Risk the World Is Ignoring

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Japan holds the most systemically dangerous position in global finance: the world’s largest foreign holder of US Treasuries ($1.12T), the most extreme G7 government debt load (260% of GDP), and an oil-importing nation now absorbing acute inflationary shock from Hormuz — for the first time in three decades. The M0/M2 divergence is definitive: monetary base grew at 14.7% CAGR over 36 years while broad money grew at only 2.9% — the signature of a broken money multiplier. Now Japan faces a trilemma with no clean exit:

• Raise rates → JGB yields spike → government interest costs explode → sovereign solvency concern emerges.
• Hold rates → Yen weakens → import inflation intensifies → a self-fulfilling inflationary spiral.
• Sell US Treasuries → global bond yields surge → US costs rise → geopolitical acceleration. Every option exports pain globally.

Even partial liquidation of Japan’s $1.12T US Treasury holdings could compress global equity P/E multiples by 15–25% through a higher cost of capital. As Mr. Pritam Deuskar, notes, while such an event would trigger global volatility, India’s strong external balances, sizeable foreign exchange reserves, and resilient domestic economy position it better than most major markets to navigate any financial contagion. With an external debt of only ~19% of GDP and $698–723 billion in forex reserves, India remains among the very few large economies capable of absorbing such shocks without triggering a sovereign funding crisis.

The Anatomy of Structural Immunity

The most instructive observation from March 2026 is not what corrected, but what remained resilient. While aviation, consumer discretionary, and FMCG repriced sharply, a select group of sectors continued to outperform, highlighting the market’s preference for structural growth over cyclical uncertainty. Their demand is driven by long-term government spending, strategic priorities, or technology-led disruption rather than short-term economic cycles. As Mr. Pritam Deuskar, CIO, Wealthyvia Ventures LLP, notes, these sectors represent structural capital rather than cyclical trades, making them among the most resilient investment themes during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In our view, these sectors will continue to witness sustained demand and long-term capital allocation despite elevated global volatility.

⚡ Power & Grid

War accelerates — never delays — energy security capex. Governments sign 10–20 year supply contracts with zero price elasticity.

🛡️ Defence & Aerospace

War creates demand. Defence budgets are last to be cut and first to be expanded. India’s Samarthya ’26 (+15%) is a multi-year order backlog catalyst.

💻 Semiconductors

Modern warfare is chip warfare. US CHIPS Act + India PLI create an irreversible capex cycle locked through 2030. Sovereign AI = Sovereign chips.

🚀 Space & Defence Tech

Space capability is the new nuclear deterrence. No government has ever cut space budgets during an existential conflict.

🏗️ Data Centres & AI

Hyperscaler capex commitments of $80–120B annually are locked irrespective of oil prices, ceasefire status, or geopolitical weather.

💎 Luxury Goods

HNWI wealth is sticky; luxury consumption tracks asset prices, not GDP. War historically concentrates HNWI spending in safe-haven markets.

⚕️ Pharma & CDMO

Healthcare demand is non-discretionary. India’s 30% share of global generics is a strategic geopolitical asset the US supply chain cannot abandon.

“The best business to own in a war is one that governments cannot afford to stop buying from. Defence, energy, semiconductors, and data infrastructure share one defining characteristic: their customers are sovereign states or largest MNCs”

— Pritam Deuskar, CIO · Wealthyvia Ventures LLP

The Rare Moment When Good Things Can Be Bought Well

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Every correction feels catastrophic from within, while every recovery appears obvious in hindsight. Investors who fail to distinguish between the two often destroy wealth by buying euphoria instead of value. The March 2026 correction was driven by geopolitical uncertainty rather than deteriorating corporate earnings or structural economic weakness. As Mr. Pritam Deuskar notes, such dislocations often create attractive entry points for long-term investors, particularly when valuations correct without a corresponding decline in business fundamentals.

India’s M2/Sensex ratio at ~1.02x confirms fair value — not cheap, not stretched. The P/E compression from 24–25x to 20.5x — driven by ₹88,000 crore in FPI outflows in March alone — has mechanically repriced quality franchises to levels where 14–18% corporate earnings growth delivers pure return with no valuation headwind to fight. Any re-rating of multiples back toward the historical mean of 22x is pure additional return — a double engine of compounding.

The historical evidence from the post-shock outperformance table above is the most powerful validation: after every major geopolitical event in the last 35 years, the sectors that compressed the least during the shock led the recovery most decisively. In each cycle, the patient investor who bought quality at corrected valuations — not in spite of the fear, but because of it — achieved the best risk-adjusted returns of that entire decade. The same dynamic is unfolding now. FPI selling that repriced India from 24x to 20.5x has not changed a single earnings line at any structurally sound business. It has simply created a wider margin of safety.

The M2/Gold ratio at a 45-year high of 4.9x (last seen in 1981) adds further weight to the equity case: gold’s 25–35% mean-reversion risk as real yields remain elevated makes equities the structurally superior store of value. Corrected valuations are not a warning — they are an invitation. The question is simply whether you have the intellectual courage to accept it.

Howard Marks

“It’s not what you buy, it’s what you pay. Success in investing doesn’t come from buying good things, but from buying things well.” The correction of March 2026 has given us the rare gift of buying good things well — India’s structural winners in power, defence, capital markets, pharma, and advanced manufacturing are now available at valuations that were simply unachievable six months ago.

Why India Wins Where Others Are Losing Ground

India’s competitive advantage is measurable across every dimension that matters: GDP growth 7.4% (vs China 4.6%, EU ~0.4%), inflation at a historic 1.7% low (vs Vietnam 4.3%, EU 5.2%), median age 28 years (vs China 39, Europe 44), manufacturing GVA surging 13.3%, EU market access now 93% duty-free, forex reserves at $698–723Bn, fiscal deficit falling to 4.4% of GDP, and digital payments at 45% of GDP via UPI. On every axis — demographic, fiscal, monetary, trade, and digital — India leads the field.

The FTA revolution is India’s crowning strategic achievement. The India-EU deal (93% duty-free, €4bn savings) eliminates the LDC advantage Bangladesh and Vietnam have held for decades. The EFTA deal legally binds $100B in FDI to trade access — the world’s first such commitment. The Australia ECTA secures Lithium and Cobalt supply, directly challenging China’s EV battery monopoly. India’s FTA architecture is not trade policy; it is industrial strategy deployed as geopolitical instrument.

India’s Goldilocks Convergence — Unprecedented in Post-Independence History

7.4% real GDP growth · 1.7% CPI · 4.4% fiscal deficit (falling) · 1.0% Current Account Deficit · $698–723Bn forex reserves · 5.25% repo rate with easing capacity intact · PFCE at 61.5% of GDP (14-year high) · Earnings inflecting from Q3 FY26 · M2/Sensex at fair value. This constellation has never before occurred simultaneously in post-Independence India. Not optimism — data.

“Summarising all the points, Crux of this is to understand from Today what you hold and why for next 18 months will matter more than ever. Aligning portfolios with solid reasoning with natural sectoral tailwinds is more important than ever. India’s once in century, Confluence of forces moment has arrived now in terms of low inflation, high gdp growth, fair valuations, readiness for consumption , young demographics, world over FTA alliance and unstoppable growth. Right alignment will make fortunes if you make right moves NOW.”

Yours sincerely and profitably

Pritam Deuskar , CIO — Wealthyvia Ventures LLP

This brief is published by Wealthyvia Ventures LLP for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investments carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Views represent the CIO Desk opinion as of the date of publication. Data sourced from Investmint Annual Letter 2026, India AIF Newsletter March 2026, RBI, MOSPI, SEBI, and Bloomberg. For institutional and sophisticated investors only.